In the latest display of football punditry, Robert Griffin III set the sports world abuzz by elevating Miami Dolphins’ Tua Tagovailoa into an elite circle, declaring him a “top five quarterback” in the NFL. This bold assertion brings Tagovailoa’s valuation to the forefront, sparking debates across platforms, with fans and critics weighing in on his worthiness of such high praise and remuneration. But to truly gauge Tagovailoa’s position among his peers, we must dig into the numbers, bypassing the usual biases for a more analytical approach.
Our examination will rest on the solid ground of regular-season statistics and metrics, offering a fair comparison.
When reviewing the basic stats from Tagovailoa’s last two seasons, one cannot help but be impressed. His progression is evident from a mere glance at his completion rates, passing yards, touchdown tallies, and interceptions, along with the quarterback rating and ESPN’s QBR.
These figures, especially the leap in yards and QB rating from 2022 to 2023, hint at a player hitting his stride. However, these raw numbers, while intriguing, don’t fully encapsulate a quarterback’s efficiency or impact—they’re merely the tip of the iceberg.
To dive deeper, we turn to advanced analytics from various respected data collectors, such as nfelo and rbsdm, focusing on key metrics like Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE), Expected Points Added per dropback (EPA/db), and Win Probability Added per dropback (WPA/db). Tagovailoa’s rankings in these domains solidify his status as not only an accurate passer but one whose plays significantly contribute to his team’s likelihood of success.
Perhaps the most telling data comes from Pro Football Focus (PFF), whose exhaustive analysis sheds light on quarterback performance through PFF passing grades, Big Time Throws (BTT%), and Turnover Worthy Plays (TWP%). Tua’s elevated standing in these metrics, particularly in 2023, underscores his role as a vital cog in the Dolphins’ offensive machine.
Yet, no analysis can be complete without contextual nuances—Tua benefits from strong team support but isn’t merely riding on coattails. He’s a maestro of the aerial attack, capable of threading needles and landing bombs with finesse, despite certain drawbacks like his limited mobility and occasional risk-taking.
So, where does Tua Tagovailoa truly rank among NFL quarterbacks? The statistics, advanced analyses, and growth observed on film paint a picture of a quarterback teetering on the edge of greatness.
My perspective places him between the NFL’s 5th and 8th best quarterbacks currently. There’s undeniable potential for ascent, with room for improvement in mobility and performance under pressure, particularly in decisive moments and playoff matchups.
As we look to the future, Tagovailoa’s trajectory suggests a bright horizon. Should he address his few shortcomings and continue to elevate his game, breaking into the top five is not just possible, but likely. Watching this unfold will be a treat for football aficionados everywhere.