Looking around the league at every team that could possibly want a new QB next season, as well the likely outcomes for the players who could come available.
Of the players most likely to come free, Prescott and Tagovailoa would be the most coveted long-term options. / Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports (Prescott); Jasen Vinlove/USA TODAY Sports (Tagovailoa)
As is tradition, it’s time to spend the hottest days of the summer discussing something that won’t take place until the spring of next year. The quarterback carousel is relevant in July, though, because long-term planning never takes a rest. I’m not saying that a quarterback-needy team at this very moment is trying to figure out what’s happening with Kirk Cousins, but I am saying that what happens to Cousins this year—and the young, talented QB with upside whom the Atlanta Falcons selected at No. 8 in the draft even after signing Cousins—is going to factor heavily into the plans of a team whose original plan did not work out.
Anyway, here’s a one-liner on every single team I could see maybe, possibly needing a quarterback or a competitive, veteran upgrade going into the 2025 season. Some of these scenarios are far-fetched, but listing out all 19 illustrates what kind of flux the league is in.
Teams are not listed in order of likelihood, I’m just spinning through division by division.
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa has yet to sign a contract extension. As of this moment, he’d be a free agent at season’s end (though the Dolphins could franchise tag him).
New York Jets
I mean, do you know where Aaron Rodgers is right now? Right at this moment? No. Neither do the Jets. It’s all on the table, man.
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland cannot really separate itself from the massive, fully guaranteed Deshaun Watson deal. But if Watson disappoints, gets injured again or proves to be middling in his return from shoulder surgery, the Browns will have no choice but to add real competition and admit a mistake.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Russell Wilson is on a one-year deal and Justin Fields did not have his fifth-year option exercised. Enough said.
Indianapolis Colts
The Colts have a spicy roster and a wunderkind coach in Shane Steichen. Anthony Richardson has all the tools, but is raw. If he cannot keep himself out of harm’s way again, could he find himself deemed replaceable or at least sideline-able?
Tennessee Titans
This will be an evaluatory year for Will Levis, after which, I would imagine, Brian Callahan will get a chance to keep his guy or find a new one.
Denver Broncos
Sean Payton laid his chips on the table with a high-risk, high-reward QB selection with Bo Nix at No. 12. Is the coach patient enough to slog through a rebuilding season with no promise and head into a third year as a sitting duck?
Las Vegas Raiders
When the choices are Aidan O’Connell and Gardner Minshew II both playing for a re-signed interim head coach, nothing is certain.
Dallas Cowboys
Jerry Jones has yet to re-sign Dak Prescott, and while letting Prescott hit the market seems ludicrous, Dallas’s situation has not felt sensical in a while.
New York Giants
Daniel Jones knows he is in a make-or-break season with Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito behind him eyeing starter’s snaps this year. If Jones flounders, the QB position could get blown up entirely in New York.
Philadelphia Eagles
Relax. Relax. But … the Eagles moved on from Carson Wentz shortly after signing him to an extension. If Hurts again fails to capture his 2022 form without Steichen, his former OC, could the team get curious about doing to Hurts what Hurts once did to Wentz?
Goff was just rewarded with a big contract, but the Lions have sky-high expectations. / Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK
Detroit Lions
This is a stretch, for sure, but what if the team, similar to Jared Goff’s Los Angeles Rams, comes incredibly close to realizing its potential and feels as if it’s one QB upgrade away?
Carolina Panthers
I’m bullish on a Bryce Young renaissance, but would team owner David Tepper allow new coach Dave Canales to explore other options if this season is a throwaway?
New Orleans Saints
The Saints can get out of Derek Carr’s deal after this season, and there is obviously a heavy make-or-break vibe to the Dennis Allen regime in New Orleans this year.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Baker Mayfield’s contract is not totally prohibitive. Tampa Bay could move on, especially if there’s a slate clearing following the 2024 season.
Arizona Cardinals
The dead money in Kyler Murray’s deal drops significantly after the 2024 season. Jonathan Gannon loves Murray, but would that change if Murray is injured again or the Cardinals underperform?
Los Angeles Rams
Barring any extension or reworking, Matthew Stafford will become Goff-level vulnerable after this season, and we all know that Sean McVay isn’t going to hesitate pivoting if it suits the offense.
San Francisco 49ers
Personally, I think the team is preparing to hand Brock Purdy the bag. But—BUT—what if Kyle Shanahan gets another full-season evaluation on the former Mr. Irrelevant and comes away thinking he would rather have Cousins for one last title push before Christian McCaffrey & Co. age out?
Seattle Seahawks
Sam Howell could push Geno Smith this year. Smith has been a great story in Seattle, but Mike Macdonald is (likely) going to want his own signature QB at some point.
If Michael Penix Jr. gets a chance to become the starter, Cousins may not have a long stay in Atlanta. / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
See? It could get strange. That’s all I’m saying. We have no idea what the 2025 draft class will look like, and we won’t know whether another Jayden Daniels–type player will emerge onto the scene and capture our attention. Pieces could be on the move, and owners are as impatient as ever.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at the major, starting-caliber players who could make up the discussion.
Dak Prescott
Prescott will be a free agent after this season. He is represented by a smart agent who prioritizes shorter-term contracts with high-end guarantees, allowing Prescott to come up for cracks at the market more often. Perhaps the Cowboys are tired of playing that game. Perhaps they are just late to the party in terms of remedying the problem. One agent I spoke to predicted that Prescott could field in excess of $60 million, even upwards of $65 million if he hit the open market. For reference, that’s $10 million more than the current market leaders (in terms of average per year) Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. Prescott has had the luxury of playing on some excellent teams and is incredibly efficient, though his lack of postseason success has haunted him a tad.
Way-too-early-prediction:Â Prescott remains in Dallas. It feels silly for Jerry Jones to have waited this long, given what Prescott almost certainly knows about his market prospects, but Jones is no fool. The fastest way for the Cowboys to become irrelevant is to play a season with a reserve QB. Jones has taken a well-deserved round of whacks for his lack of aggression this offseason, but is paying Prescott really less appetizing than drafting Shedeur Sanders?
Now, if Prescott does not go back to Dallas? My short list: Dolphins, Jets, Broncos, Titans, Steelers.
Kirk Cousins
Cousins signed a free-agent contract with the Atlanta Falcons this offseason and was their presumed QB of the future until they drafted Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick. Penix would seem to be a wait-and-see player but, unlike other rookie quarterbacks, he’s already well into his twenties and has a wealth of experience. Imagine if Penix has a great camp, or spells Cousins well during a period of injury. Cousins, who is 36 and coming off a torn Achilles, is valuable especially in the highly-popular Shanahan system and would have suitors if he became expendable for the Falcons.
Way-too-early-prediction: Cousins gets the Falcons close to playoff contention and fends off Penix for one more season. But, if that’s not the case, I could see him being in the conversation for a job with the 49ers or Dolphins.
Aaron Rodgers
Until I actually see Rodgers play a handful of games for the Jets—and play well—I won’t believe or even entertain the idea of him playing beyond this year. Every indication is that he’s a model citizen inside those buildings’ walls, so perhaps it will work out according to plan. Or … maybe Rodgers will have his swan song elsewhere? Maybe his Jets tenure will crumble due to some fast-developing rift? Maybe he’ll end up in Denver after all, following a year of speculation that Rodgers would take a Peyton Manning–esque path into the sunset? So many possibilities are on the table for the four-time MVP.
Way-too-early-prediction:Â I think Rodgers makes it through this season in New York and then is off to explore life unknown. One cannot blame a man in his forties for having curiosities beyond professional football, and he may be in an ideal political environment to find a voice and a platform for himself after retirement.
Jalen Hurts
Hurts is only in Year 2 of a five-year, $255 million contract. However, this same Eagles regime had Wentz signed to a long-term deal and ate a significant amount of dead-cap space to trade him to the Colts. Hurts was a second-round draft pick after owner Jeffrey Lurie was entranced by the former Alabama and Oklahoma prospect, believing him to be a Russell Wilson–type player with more upside.
Is it impossible to believe that another such player exists in the draft this year? That Hurts struggles and it’s not simply a coordinator-related issue? That the Eagles revamp their coaching staff and the new guy wants his own QB? I agree that this is the most far-fetched name on this list, but how out there is it really?
Way-too-early-prediction: Hurts obviously remains with the Eagles but … what if the Colts struggle and Steichen wants to reunite with the quarterback he took to the Super Bowl?
Daniel Jones
Everything I’ve heard about Jones is that he’s a man on a mission this spring. I’ve been told that my prediction of Drew Lock usurping the former first-round pick is hogwash and that Jones knows he’s playing for his football life this season. I think Jones could easily find a home as a fringe starter in 2025 should his time with the Giants come to an early end. Again, think about the sheer number of teams that are out there in this QB-needy territory. To me, Jones is an ideal bridge starter and could have a Ryan Tannehill–like back end to his career.
Way-too-early-prediction: The Giants draft Jones’s successor in 2025. Jones ends up in either Nashville, Las Vegas, Pittsburgh or in high-end backup QB rehab with the Kansas City Chiefs or Rams.
Wilson signed a one-year deal in Pittsburgh, where he will compete with Justin Fields. / Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Russell Wilson
Wilson is difficult to get a read on. I’ve written this in the past, but there is no doubt he’s been successful on the field and beloved off the field while at the same time struggling mightily on the field and, let’s face it, having a somewhat checkered relationship with coaches and teammates off the field. He’s a complex dude (as most of us are when it all comes down to it). But I do think there’s a way to make Wilson work as a quarterback still, so long as Wilson understands his own limitations. His last season in Denver was not bad by typical QB standards and would be a welcome addition to a place like Pittsburgh. A willingness to pick up first downs on the ground and extend plays without surrendering ground are good places to start. At 35 (turning 36 in November) he is entering that phase of his career where he likely has one more swan song in him. If that’s not with the Steelers, the benefit of someone like Wilson is that he completely reset his salary floor after taking a veteran minimum paycheck to stick the Broncos with the remainder of his massive contract. He could end up having one of those great Warren Moon–ian, Randall Cunningham–like, post-35 seasons.
Way-too-early-prediction: Bryce Young is catching a lot of strays here, but there’s no doubt the current Panthers staff did wonders with Wilson in Seattle. If Wilson can’t make it work in Pittsburgh, could Carolina be an option in more of a veteran, mentoring role?
Justin Fields
Fields came on at the end of his time with the Chicago Bears, so much so that I wondered why Chicago wouldn’t consider keeping him and forcing teams to come and get him via trade after Fields had the chance to challenge Caleb Williams during mandatory minicamp or even training camp. Alas, we’re at the point where Fields is running parallel to Wilson in Pittsburgh and we’re not quite sure what will happen.
Personally, I think Fields started to really come on as a passer. He was better in two-minute situations and still has an excellent touch on the football. I think with time, effort and good coaching, he could round into a consistent top-12 player at the position. That said, he is very much a free agent at the end of this season and has what so many quarterbacks do not: incredible movement skills and the ability to accelerate any offense where the run and pass are intimately tied together.
Way-too-early-prediction: Fields will re-sign with the Steelers on a Baker Mayfield–style three-year deal at season’s end.
Tua Tagovailoa
I think we all fall into two camps with Tagovailoa, and those arguments have all been well fleshed out. There is a borderline political feel to it, where one side cannot be bothered to change their mind for the other. I will introduce some third-party ideology here, though: Taking Tagovailoa out of it, I am wondering what Mike McDaniel would be like with another quarterback. And I think this is what owner Stephen Ross should be curious about, too.
McDaniel is always going to say great things about Tagovailoa and back him up. That’s who he is as a coach and as a person. And part of that is well-founded. Tagovailoa grew immensely last season and can play on schedule, with anticipation and in rhythm with most of the greats. He also started creating more, and I do wonder what could happen with another season. I think Tagovailoa possesses the ability to wedge his way into that top-10 QB conversation.
But the Dolphins are out of time to make that projection without considering much of a long-term contract extension a massive financial risk. Similar to the Daniel Jones contract, we’re betting on potential while weighing injury risk and the fact that Tagovailoa did not play well enough to earn a starting job before McDaniel arrived.
All of this would make him a very intriguing free agent if he were allowed to move on, given how many Alabama coaches are in the NFL. Or, a white-knuckle signing for the Dolphins, whose window to win is immediate.
Way-too-early-prediction:Â The Dolphins and Tagovailoa come to some sort of an agreement before the start of the season and, like the Giants when they signed Jones, find themselves tied to Tagovailoa for at least the next two years.
If it’s not the Dolphins? Tagovailoa could find a fit in New Orleans with a similar-minded offensive coordinator in Klint Kubiak if the Saints move on from Derek Carr.
Derek Carr
I am very eager to see Carr in Kubiak’s offense. To my knowledge, this will be the first time Carr is really steeped into a system like this. And while there are some Carr-friendly coordinators whom I’m sure were at the top of his personal wishlist this offseason, Kubiak’s system gives Carr the chance to find some new life, to build in more pocket time and to (potentially) supercharge Alvin Kamara and make life much easier. All of that said, Carr is underappreciated to a degree. Always on that borderline floating between a top-11 or top-15 starter, he’s deemed perpetually replaceable when a team sees a potential for an upgrade. Of course, the Raiders would have been much better off keeping him, but the grass is always greener on the other side.
Way-too-early-prediction:Â I think that this Saints regime will either survive the season and need to go all-in next year, or the entire thing will be blown up. In both cases, Carr would feel momentarily expendable. But he could be an upgrade in a handful of other places. Among the best fits: the Giants, Seahawks and Broncos.
Geno Smith
Smith recently had his contract restructured. The dead money is not disastrous if the Seahawks want to move on from him at season’s end, and it could make sense. Pete Carroll is no longer in charge. Shane Waldron and Dave Canales, who guided the offense and quarterback during Smith’s roaring comeback, are no longer there and I do think that he’s the perfect quarterback to experiment with this Ryan Grubb hybrid offense. But if the outcome isn’t what the team expects, then Smith has now provided himself a larger landing pad for the next act of his career. At 33, it’s infinitely easier to see him as a bridge starter or very high-end veteran backup than it was two years ago.
Way-too-early-prediction: As we mentioned above, Macdonald and John Schneider who, let’s remember, ceded roster control to Carroll all these years, are going to want to formulate their own identity. Smith’s contract is structured so that it’s easy to pay as they go, and maybe Smith will get another year, but not as an unquestioned starter. Howell is also on the roster and could legitimately challenge for some starter’s snaps this year. If Smith moves on, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Miami and Chicago as a high-end mentor/backup make a lot of sense.
Baker Mayfield
I think last season put a rest to the discussion as to whether Mayfield is a legitimate starter. Coaches love his arm strength and his pro-style arsenal of throws. He now changes out one hot young coordinator in Canales for another in Liam Cohen. The Buccaneers still have one of the better offenses in the NFL.
Way-too-early-prediction: I think the Mayfield and Smith contracts are both a golden goose. Unless you have Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes—meaning, highly physical outliers in terms of size and arm strength who can impact every phase of the game—you basically want someone who can let it rip, who doesn’t suffer from low confidence, who can hit most throws and who can process at a steady clip. Mayfield is making more than $20 million less than the top end of the QB market. But how much worse is he going to be statistically this year than Trevor Lawrence?
Again, if Mayfield is out in Tampa due to a regime change or some other unforeseen event, I see him as an easy plug-and-play starter in a handful of spots. The Giants, Steelers, Titans, Cowboys and more would be ideal suitors. Mayfield has been through the worst of the NFL and is battle weathered.
Jimmy Garoppolo
I don’t have to tell anyone how short our collective memories are. The end of the Garoppolo era was unceremonious in Las Vegas, but he’s now on a Rams team that could easily slingshot him back into fringe starter status just like the offense did for Mayfield two years ago.
Way-too-early-prediction:Â Garoppolo is signed to whichever team Bill Belichick ends up coaching (if he does) next year.
Lighting Round
Some other quarterbacks who may end up in the discussion for fringe starter or competition jobs next year:
• Jacoby Brissett
• Mac Jones
• Gardner Minshew II
• Joe Flacco
• Jameis Winston
• Sam Darnold
• Tyrod Taylor
• Trey Lance
• Taylor Heinicke
• Jarrett Stidham
• Drew Lock
• Carson Wentz
• Zach Wilson
• Sam Howell
• Ryan Tannehill
• Jake Browning
• Marcus Mariota
• Andy Dalton
All of these names could be in consideration for starting jobs No. 25 to No. 32, depending on how the 2024 season plays out.
