Penn State defensive lineman Chop Robinson runs a drill at the NFL football scouting combine in February in Indianapolis. (AP Photo/Michael Conroy)
You see the size. You see the speed. You see the positional need of the Miami Dolphins in taking edge rusher Chop Robinson with their 21st pick.
You don’t see the production.
That’s the concern here.
Every drafted player comes with reasons why he was taken and a hurdle for working out as planned. Robinson’s pros and cons are striking on each side. As such, the important piece to understand is what role he’ll be asked to play as he develops.
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At 6-3, 254 pounds, he was an NFL Combine wonder with a 4.48 time in the 40 that tied for eighth-fastest among defensive ends.
Throw in his shuttle (4.25 seconds), vertical jump (34.5 inches) and broad jump (10 feet, 8 inches) and you see he has the, “elite athleticism we’ve seen from players like Micah Parsons and Myles Garrett,’’ NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein said.
Let’s carry those comparisons through. Parsons, the Dallas Cowboys star, had 109 tackles (42 solo) and five sacks in his final college season as a Penn State sophomore. He played linebacker, though, so it’s not an apples-to-apples look.
Garrett is a better comparison as defensive nd. He had 33 tackles (18 solo), 8.5 sacks, two passes defensed and two forced fumbles in 10 games in his last college season as a Texas A&M junior.
Robinson had 15 tackles and four sacks in 10 games as a Penn State junior last season. The sacks ranked fourth on the team and the tackles ranked seven among Penn State’s defensive linemen.
Where’s the production? Well, he had a pressure rate of 18.5 percent, tops in the Big Ten. That’s a number football people like, the one that combined with his speed tells what he can be as a third-down pass rusher.
Sift through the draft analysis and former Atlanta coach Mike Smith, who likes Robinson, has the best breakdown of Robinson’s game.
“He’s not real strong and that’s evident when you watch the tape because he’s one of those that get up the field and attacks guys but when he attacks, he’ll get pushed out of the hole in the running game,” said Smith, who also was defensive coordinator in Jacksonville and Tampa. “He doesn’t have the girth and the strength to sit down at the line of scrimmage and make plays.
“So, he’ll run up the field and run himself out of plays in the run game. He has to improve that, but I can see him being a third down guy who you’re going to want on the field in passing situations.”
There’s the role you can see for Robinson as a rookie: A third-down pass rusher. It looks like he’d have at tough time playing all downs considering Smith’s observation about a lack of strength is backed up by Robinson’s few tackles at Penn State. He can develop into that, though.
“They’re going with the physical freak who didn’t produce,’’ NBC analyst Phil Simms said.
Simms liked the pick, too. He likes Robinson. It’s just there’s an eyes-wide-open assessment of the risk being taken here, who Robinson is right now and how he’ll need to develop.
The way it works isn’t just through the obvious physical talent Robinson has. It’s the fit here. The Dolphins can’t have enough people to pressure the quarterback when they’re playing Buffalo’s Josh Allen and the Jets’ Aaron Rodgers in the AFC East four times a year. Then there’s the rest of the AFC’s quarterbacks: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud …
Some hands-on coaching will be needed, it seems. Plus, to take Smith’s analysis, some simple advice:
Hit the weight room, kid.
2. Not to come too hard on the Robinson questions – you see why the Dolphins picked him – but coaching will be a prime issue here. The Robinson pick reminds me of a Jimmy Johnson draft story from the “Swagger” book I did with the Hall of Fame coach. When in Dallas, the defensive staff fell in love with the size and speed of a big-school edge rusher. Defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt had Jimmy do a deep dive on him. Jimmy did a shallow dive.
“Show me the plays he made,’’ Johnson said.
The player didn’t produce. I was told the name of the player even if they didn’t want it in the book. The player went on to have a pedestrian NFL career.
3. Taking Robinson here also was a statement about the condition of Phillips recovery from his Achilles’ tear and/or Bradley Chubb’s return from knee injury. The Dolphins already signed veteran Shaq Barrett as an edge rusher and this draft pick might also be underlining they’re not sure their starters will be ready earlier in the year.
4. New England Patriots pick Drake Maye compared himself to Buffalo’s Josh Allen. Maye is big like Allen at 6-4, 220 pounds and led the ACC in rushing in 2002. So he runs like him. But the good news for the Dolphins if you want to carry this through is Allen didn’t become Allen until Year 3. That fits what scouts say. He’s a project, not a step-in starter.
5. It’s time for the Dolphins to help the offense score more, right? They averaged 15.9 points against playoff defenses in going 1-6 last year. It wasn’t like that was some aberration. The most they scored was 22 points against Dallas.
6. On the odd Atlanta pick: I’ve wondered for a while why teams shy from investing in a second quarterback on a different timeline. It isn’t just the Dolphins. It’s pretty much everyone. Since the draft was in Detroit, consider how the Lions would have been smarter in the 2020 draft if they’d taken Justin Herbert or Tua Tagvailoa with the fourth pick even though they had veteran Matthew Stafford. Instead, they took cornerback Jeff Okudah. That said, Atlanta just invested $100 million in Kirk Cousins and now used the eighth pick on Michal Penix Jr.? The read-through here is Penix sits for a year, maybe two, then they trade Cousins and get some of the draft-value back. Maybe. This is a head-scratcher.
7. Regarding Bill Belichick, it was the oddest of couplings of him with irreverent Pat McAfee on ESPN. It was uncomfortably funny when McAfee had some guy doing some long, drawn-out card trick beside Belichick, who was locked into the draft going on. As far as New England picking Maye, Belichick had some good and bad comments of his game summing it up with: “Drake compares himself a lot to Josh Allen, he’s been doing that for quite awhile. We’ll see about that.”
8. The Jets actually did something smart in getting a young offensive tackle to protect Aaron Rodgers.
9. If Kansas City throws a deep pass to beat Buffalo again next season in the playoffs, the Bills only have themselves to blame. They traded down with Kansas City, who took speedster Xavier Worthy, who gives Patrick Mahomes the kind of talent they’ve lacked since Tyreek Hill was traded to the Dolphins.
10. Robinson was nicknamed “Pork Chop” by his parents. Combined with “Bam” Adebayo, does any market have two better nicknamed players?