2024 NFL playoffs: Tua Tagovailoa’s stats in cold weather underline why temperature may decide Dolphins-Chiefs

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The Miami Dolphins travel to Kansas City for Super Wild Card Weekend, where they will face Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. Arrowhead in prime time is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL, but it will be even tougher on Saturday night.

Weather.com says Saturday in this section of Missouri will feature conditions that include a high of 12 degrees, and a low of -5 degrees. At kickoff, the temperature is expected to be right around 5 degrees with a wind chill of -10, according to the National Weather Service. It could be the coldest playoff game either team has ever played in. The Dolphins have lost 10 straight games where the kickoff temperature is below 40 degrees, which is the longest active streak in the NFL. All of a sudden, that Buffalo Bills matchup last Sunday night feels like it was actually a must-win.

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Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who led the NFL in passing yards this season with 4,624, has lost each of the five coldest starts of his career. He completed 57% of his passes for five touchdowns and seven interceptions in those matchups. In fact, Tagovailoa is 6-13 in games under 70 degrees, and 23-4 in games of 70+ degrees.

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Tagovailoa is making his first postseason start this weekend since he missed last year’s wild-card matchup due to a concussion. These two teams last met in Germany in November, with Kansas City earning a 21-14 victory. The Chiefs scored all 21 points in the first half, while the Dolphins scored zero. Tyreek Hill caught eight passes for 62 yards, and the Dolphins recorded just 292 yards of total offense.

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